SMM Copper Price Forecast (Jan. 14-18)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 14 (SMM) – SHFE copper prices were more resilient than LME copper and fluctuated narrowly between RMB 58,200-58,500/mt early in the week. The number of positions grew sharply by 36,000 lots and with long investors exhibiting greater buying interest. However, SHFE copper prices followed LME copper up and broke through previous trading ranges on Thursday to hit RMB 58,820/mt, but lacked further upward momentum.

In spot markets last week, cargo-holders continued to move goods, but with the delivery day for SHFE 1301 copper contracts approaching, copper discounts narrowed gradually to RMB 20-100/mt last Friday, down from RMB 100-200/mt on January 4th. Some hedged copper was locked out of markets later in the week, causing market supply to decrease. Downstream producers chose to buy early in the week, but held back later in the week as copper prices rose to RMB 58,000/mt. Market transactions were mainly made by traders, but these transactions also fell off gradually as copper discounts shrank and as the price gap between SHFE copper contracts narrowed.

In the coming week, SHFE copper prices will fluctuate in a narrower band than LME copper, confirming support at RMB 58,000/mt, but with strong resistance at RMB 59,000/mt.