SMM Risk Warming: Mixed Economic Data fromEurozone and the US, Market Focus Shifts to Chinese Data

SHANGHAI, Jan. 9 (SMM) – SMM lists the following events which may affect base metal price movement.

No. 1 Germany‘s November Exports Slump to Record Largest Decline in One Year

The seasonally-adjusted exports from Germany fell by 3.4% MoM in November, the largest decline in one year. Economists expect that Germany’s exports for November to fall by 0.5% MoM.

SMM view:
The downbeat economic data from Germany suggest that industrial engine in the euro zone also steps into difficulty.

No.2 Germany’s November Manufacture Orders Disappointing

The seasonally-adjusted manufacture orders from Germany fell by 1.8% MoM in November, and the decline is deeper than market expectation.

SMM view:
According to sub-index, overseas orders fell by 4.1%, domestic manufacture orders grew by 1.3%. Domestic demand rebounds, but sustainability remains unknown. 
The decline in export orders suggests that economic condition in the other euro zone members is still sluggish. It is expected that Germany’s economic data for Q4 will not be optimistic, which will in turn add market concern over the euro zone.

No. 3 Eurozone November Unemployment Rate Hits New High at 11.8%

The unemployment data in the euro zone for November was 11.8%, higher than 11.7% in October

SMM view:

The unemployment rate in the euro zone grew to hit a new high, suggesting that consumption expenditure may not easily improve. From current economic condition, unemployment rate may rise further in the future, which means that demand in the euro zone will not improve either. This casts a show over economic growth outlook in 2013.

No. 4 US Consumer Credit for November Higher than Market Expectation

The US consumer credit for November 2012 rose to USD 16.05 billion, higher than USD 12.75 billion expected.

SMM view:
The upbeat economic data will only have limited impact on market movement. However, based on a long-term perspective, the US economy may report more positive news. The higher consumer credit suggests that the US demand shows signs of recovery.

However, if the US economy recovery trend is reinforced, the Fed may exit QE operation.

No. 5 China SMEs Confidence Index below 50% for Two Consecutive Quarters

China's SMEs Confidence Index for Q4 was 47.28%, the second consecutive quarter below 50%. 

SMM View:
China's SMEs Confidence Index, especially financing confidence, for Q4 was sluggish, which was mainly due to bank's strict control of loans and high financing costs.
A slew of economic data will be released from China, including imports and exports data, CPI, PPI, and GDP. It is expected that PPI may be still low, and import and export will rebound. These data will be important guidance for base metal price movement.