SMM Nickel Market Morning Review (2013-1-10)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 10 (SMM) – LME nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 17,330/mt and closed at USD 17,493/mt, up USD 142/mt from a day earlier, with intraday high at USD 17,592/mt and the low at USD 17,300/mt.Daily trading volumes were 2,193 lots, down 26 lots. Positions were 116,021 lots, down 805 lots. LME nickel inventories were 143,418 mt, down 72 mt from a day earlier.

LME nickel prices moved narrowly during the Asian trading hours, but advanced along with stock market rally during the European and US trading hours. Finally, LME nickel prices settled at USD 17,493/mt, up USD 142/mt from a day earlier.

Annualized rare of GDP for 3Q in the Eurozone contracted by 0.6%. Seasonally adjusted monthly rate of industrial output for November in Germany rose by 0.2%, below 1% expected, and previous reading was adjusted from 2.6% to 2.0%.  However, the improved new orders and business confidence fueled optimistic expectation over industry output outlook in 2013.The US consumer loans for November increased by USD 1.89 billion MoM, better than market expectation, and suggesting that the US consumption is improving.

Although the European Central Bank kept interest rate unchanged, market expected that Mario Draghi would adopt bold policies in the future.

In Chin, the Ministry of Finance reported that China’s tax reduction totaled 200 billion in 2012. As the new policy only trial implemented for a few months in 2012, it is expected that tax reduction will reduce sharply in 2013, which will greatly benefit small and medium enterprises.

In financial market, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.27%, and the US dollar slightly advanced. LME base metal prices closed mixed, and LME copper prices fell.

LME nickel inventory pressure is still high, but technical indicators suggest that LME nickel prices may advance. If China’s economic data is positive, LME nickel prices may advance, but will still meet resistance in the long term. SMM expects that LME nickel prices will move between USD 17,300-17,800/mt and Shanghai nickel spot prices will move between RMB 121,500-123,500/mt on Thursday.