SMM Nickel Market Daily Review (2012-12-31)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 4 (SMM) -- In the Shanghai nickel spot market, mainstream traded prices of nickel from Jinchuan Group were between RMB 119,400-119,500/mt and mainstream traded prices of nickel from Russia were between RMB 118,200-118,400/mt. There were virtually no transactions in spot market on Monday as most traders were on holiday on the even of new year.

Based on result of SMM survey on market sentiment, 50% market players predict that LME nickel prices will fall below USD 17,000/mt this week. According to report from Wall Street, the two parties in the US still fail to report progress on the fiscal cliff one day ahead of deadline. The Senate will have a vote on new proposal on 12:00 on Monday night. It is believed that fiscal cliff is possible, which may weigh on LME nickel prices.

30% market players believe that LME nickel prices will regain upward momentum and may advance above USD 17,700/mt in this coming week. There reasons are as follows. First, they believe that a proposal will be accepted by two parities, which will prevent market confidence from weakening. Second, stainless steel mils purchases for raw materials were low due to tight cash flow pressure by the end of the year. However, cash flow pressure will be eased with the coming of new year, which may improve downstream demand. They believe these two factors will boost LME nickel prices to rise in the following week.

20% market players hold that LME nickel prices will move between USD 17,000-17,600/mt in the coming week. The US fiscal cliff negotiation has many uncertainties. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacture index and non-farm report for December which will be released this week will also bring many uncertainties. Therefore, SMM believes that LME nickel prices will remain fluctuation trend is this coming week.