China Silicon Metal Market Weekly Forecast (Oct. 29-Nov. 2)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 26 (SMM) --

Supply:

Inventories at Hongkai and Yuehua warehouses at Huangpu port were still less than 20,000 mt. Overseas demand was weak, so producers were reluctant to move goods to Huangpu port. Inventories at two larges warehouses in Yunnan province were over 40,000 mt, largely #3303 silicon metal.Silicon metal prices only slightly fluctuated after the National Day holiday. Electricity prices in Southwest China were raised by RMB 0.03-0.08/kwh. The higher production costs forced silicon metal producers to halt to cut output. Electricity prices were unchanged for a whole year in Xinjiang, but transportation fee in Xinjiang was adjusted at times.  Transportation capacity in Xinjiang became tight in late October in Xinjiang, so offers of #421 silicon metal were up by RMB 200-300/mt.

Demand:

Organic silicon market slightly improved, so orders for #421 silicon metal for delivery in November increased to certain extent. Conditions in polysilicon and aluminum alloy industry were temporarily stable.
With price increase in electricity price and transportation fee, it is expected that silicon metal prices will rise further in the following week. However, SMM expects that any room for silicon metal prices to rise further will be limited due to the weak downstream demand.

Forecast:

SMM expects that mainstream traded prices at Huangpu port will be around RMB 10,500/mt for #553 silicon metal, RMB 11,200/mt for #441 silicon metal, RMB 11,700/mt for #3303 silicon metal and 12,900/mt for #2202 silicon metal in the following week.