SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2012-10-26)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 26 (SMM) – The US durable goods orders for September jumped more than expected by 9.9% on a monthly basis, the biggest growth since 2010, easing bearish sentiment. However, the US dollar index bounced back to 80 after hitting bottom, weakening upward momentum of commodities. LME aluminum was trapped within tight range during the European session, finding strong support at USD 1,930/mt, but met strong resistance at the 5-day moving average. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day down USD 7/mt or 0.36% at USD 1,938/mt,extending loss for five straight trading days. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased by 1,050 mt to 5,058,625 mt.

With French banks exposed to economic risks, investors will stay cautious ahead of the release of the US 3Q GDP. LME aluminum should test support at USD 1,915/mt and move between USD 1,915-1,945/mt on Friday. The SHFE 1212 aluminum contract is expected to hover near RMB 15,400/mt on Friday, with prices between RMB 15,350-15,450/mt. Spot discounts are expected between RMB 70-110/mt as supply of low-priced goods will be ample and as downstream buying should be limited.