SMM Nickel Market Morning Review (2012-10-16)

SHANGHAI, Oct.16 (SMM) -- LME nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 17,099/mt and closed at USD 17,152/mt overnight, down USD 10/mt from a day earlier, with the intraday high at USD 17,330 mt and the lowest price at USD 16,950/mt. Daily trading volumes were 4,421 lots, down 922 lots. Positions were 116,948 lots, up 877 lots. LME nickel inventories were 126,342 mt, up 1,734 mt.

LME nickel prices slipped all the way during Monday’s Asian trading hours, and hit a low at USD 16,960/mt recorded on September 14th. During the European trading hours, LME nickel prices were boosted by better-than-expected earnings from Citigroup, and finally closed at USD 17,152/mt, down USD 10/mt from a day earlier.

LME base metal prices largely closed with losses overnight, as decline in China’s core economic data triggered market concern over China’s economic outlook. The sharp decline of China’s CPI suggested eased inflationary pressure. However, China’s central bank may not likely adopt further loose monetary policy for concern over imported inflation and possibility of CPI rebound. China's PPI was down 3.6% YoY, the lowest in 35 months, suggesting decline in industrial profitability, which weighed on industrial products. In the US, the positive retail sales data helped boost base metals. Investors shifted their focus to e EU summit, which will shed signals to guide base metal price movement.

SMM expects that LME nickel prices will move in the USD 17,900-18,300/mt range, and Shanghai nickel spot prices will move in the RMB 124,000-126,500/mt on Tuesday.