SMM Daily Review – 2012/7/26 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Jul. 27 (SMM) – SHFE 1211 copper contract, the most active one, started slightly RMB 40/mt down at RMB 54,150/mt Thursday. After the opening, as both shorts and longs were wary of operations, the contract fluctuated weakly around the opening price, with a low at RMB 53,850/mt. In the afternoon, LME copper prices rallied from lows and helped the contract reverse earlier losses amid position closings by shorts, drifting marginally higher to around the previous session’s settlement price RMB 54,170/mt and touching a high at RMB 54,360/mt. However, the Shanghai Composite Index again hit a new low at 2,124 at the tail of trading, restricting SHFE copper prices which were unable to rally. But SHFE 1211 copper contract still ended RMB 20/mt or 0.04% higher at RMB 54,190/mt, with trading volumes and positions decreasing by 37,546 lots and 1,534 lots, respectively. Trading volumes and positions for SHFE 1212 copper contract added by 15,222 lots and 13,064 lots, respectively, with positions up to over 12,000 lots during the day. Selling pressures for forward SHFE copper contracts grew and longs and shorts held divergent views at RMB 54,000/mt, so SHFE copper prices will likely test this price point for the near future.

SHFE copper prices fluctuated weakly with the price gap among all SHFE copper contracts narrowing. The SHFE/LME copper price ratio fell considerably, but spot copper cargo-holders still stepped up sale volumes owing to growing bearish sentiment. This kept spot copper supply sufficient. Spot copper premium quotes were positive RMB 80-150/mt in the morning business. Traded prices for standard-quality copper were between RMB 54,620-54,680/mt, and RMB 54,680-54,750/mt for high-quality copper. Some traders chose to enter markets at the lows, while downstream producers continued buying as needed. Overall market transactions remained limited in the morning, though. In the afternoon, SHFE copper prices rallied from previous lows, but spot copper premium quotes stabilized, while traded prices widened slightly to RMB 54,600-54,800/mt. Investors were still unsure about the direction of future copper prices, so there were barely market transactions in the afternoon.