SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Jul. 9-13)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 9 (SMM) -- Interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China and European central banks were intended to ease liquidity pressures, but also highlighted weaknesses in global economies. The European debt crisis and a slowing Chinese economy will help the US dollar index remain near 83, putting downward pressure on dollar-priced commodities. LME aluminum should continue to test support at USD 1,900/mt over the near term. SHFE aluminum prices will likely fall given current excessive supply and sluggish demand. The most active SHFE October aluminum contract should move within the RMB 15,500-15,700 range during the coming week. Spot aluminum will still see discounts of RMB 0-60/mt over current-month SHFE aluminum contract prices as inventories rise and as operating rates in most downstream sectors fall.