SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Jul. 2-6)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 2 (SMM) -- European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said on Friday an agreement was reached on uniting the euro zone and that a uniform banking regulation mechanism will soon be launched. ESM will include the European Central Bank and will be able to conduct direct capital restructuring of the banking industry after its establishment. The news helped all commodity prices strengthen, but without real policy support, risk aversion will again drag down commodity prices. Investors will continue to focus on Europe in the coming week, but aluminum will also draw investor attention due to highly negative market fundamentals. LME aluminum should fluctuate between USD 1,830-1,880/mt and the most active SHFE aluminum contract price will be between RMB 15,000-15,500/mt. Spot aluminum should trade with between discounts of RMB 50/mt and premiums of RMB 20/mt since demand has been weak while supply is considered sufficient.