SMM Morning Review - 2012/7/2 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jul. 2 (SMM) – The unexpected agreement of euro zone leaders to help bring down borrowing costs of Spain and Italy and restructure the banking sector send LME aluminum above the 10-day moving average to a high of USD 1,920/mt, before settling up USD 72/mt or 3.91% at USD 1,915/mt. Transacted contracts added 4,217 lots to 18,491 lots. Latest LME aluminum stocks dropped 10,800 mt to 4,833,925 mt.

A further slide in China’s June PMI will erode support from the EU Summit agreement, so trading should be cautious today. LME aluminum is expected to be pressured at the 20-day moving average and move between USD 1,880-1,920/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for October delivery should open higher near RMB 15,600/mt and test support at RMB 15,400/mt. Its trading band is expected to be RMB 15,400-15,600/mt. Spot aluminum trading will be light as buying remains weak due to soft demand, despite easing liquidity pressures at the beginning of a new month. Spot discounts of RMB 0-40/mt are expected to be mainstream.