SMM Morning Review - 2012/6/28 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jun. 28 (SMM) – LME aluminum dipped to a fresh two-year low of USD 1,832.5/mt overnight, and rebounded later amid better-than-expected US durable goods orders and pending home sales, hitting a high of USD 1,879/mt and settling up USD 28/mt or 1.52% at USD 1,876/mt. Latest LME aluminum stocks were down 10,825 mt at 4,839,150 mt.

Trading should remain cautious today as investors doubt support from the coming EU Summit. LME aluminum is expected to struggle at the 5-day moving average and move between USD 1,850-1,880/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for October delivery is expected to start higher near RMB 15,300/mt and will remain under the 5-day moving average due to strong resistance there. Its trading band should be RMB 15,100-15,380/mt. The spot market sentiment remains slightly bearish. The selling interest will remain strong but purchases will be rare due to tight cash flow at the end of the quarter. Spot discounts and premiums should both stay within RMB 20/mt.