SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Jun. 25-29)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 26 (SMM) -- The US Federal Reserve announced it would only extend the current “Operation Twist” until the end of the year, disappointing QE3 forecasters. HSBC’s preliminary June PMI for China contracted further, a sign of waning domestic and overseas demand. As high debt yields in Greece, Spain, and Italy unnerve investors, the US dollar index may return above 82, weighing down commodities. Aluminum prices should continue to move lower in the coming week due to a poor global economic outlook and since rumored power rates cuts for Chinese aluminum smelters would lower production costs and ultimately prices. LME aluminum should meet increasing resistance at USD 1,900/mt, pushing back prices to USD 1,850/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract price may fall to RMB 15,500/mt, and deals in the spot market will be few since liquidity pressures at the end of the quarter will cause an increase in sales while demand remains weak.