SMM Morning Review - 2012/5/24 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, May 24 (SMM) – Overnight rumors that Greece may have to leave the euro zone ignited panic selling of all commodities. The US dollar index broke through 82 to a new high since September 2010 as investors flocked to the safer US dollar. LME aluminum prices dropped for a third successive trading day, settling USD 20.5/mt or 1.01% lower at USD 2,007.5/mt. Latest aluminum stocks in LME-bonded warehouses dropped 5,025 mt to 4,952,975 mt.

Whether Greece will leave the euro zone will continue to stimulate risk aversion, keeping aluminum prices low. LME aluminum is expected to be pressured at the 5-day moving average and move between USD 1,990-2,030/mt as it tries to consolidate support at the 5-day moving average. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for August delivery is expected to open lower but above RMB 15,900/mt and hover between RMB 15,870-15,970/mt. Though some traders have liquidating need at the month’s end, soft SHFE aluminum prices will drag spot aluminum prices even lower. Spot premiums will expand further due to weak selling interest. Spot discounts should be within RMB 10/mt and premiums within RMB 30/mt. Trading will be light as downstream continue to purchase on an as-needed basis.