SMM Morning Review - 2012/5/21 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, May 21 (SMM) – LME aluminum closed up USD 2/mt or 0.1% last Friday, as bargain-hunting picked up following a plunge in the US dollar index. Transacted contracts added 594 lots and positions increased 2,505 lots. Latest aluminum stocks in LME-bonded warehouses dropped 7,725 mt to 4,975,175 mt.

The European debt crisis can in no means end quickly, but the weakening US dollar may bolster a slight rebound of base metals. LME is expected to test pressure at the 30-day moving average and move between USD 2,045-2,075/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for August delivery should struggle above RMB 16,000/mt and wander between RMB 16,000-16,080/mt. Spot aluminum is expected to continue trading at discounts of RMB 10-40/mt over the current-month aluminum price as feeble buying weighs. A slight rebound in aluminum prices will lead to a split in goods holders’ selling attitudes.