SHANGHAI, May 15 (SMM) – With regard to copper price trends for the near future, SMM's latest survey of major domestic copper smelters yielded the following insights:
52% of the surveyed copper smelters expect copper prices to fluctuate at current values for the foreseeable future. Spot copper premiums in London have remained at relatively high levels after climbing to a nearly 3-year top, indicating long investor activity remains strong. However, market environment is negative for the time being, and copper consumption is unlikely to improve appreciably anytime soon. Hence, these smelters see copper prices little changed from current levels.
33% of these copper smelters are pessimistic over the outlook, pointing to that presidential election in the euro zone will inevitably hurt the financial market once in a while owing to divergent views toward economic development directions. Besides, there is news that the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be delayed, and once this is true, positive expectations over future policy will fail and exacerbate market worries about China's consumption. Moreover, the LME has stepped up supervisions and will dampen long investor activity somehow. As such, these pessimists expect copper prices will fall further.
10% of these smelters are optimistic, believing that China is a big importer of copper in the world and foreign institutions controlling copper resources will conduct bullishness in China markets. Furthermore, copper supply is limited. Hence, so long as long investor activity prevails, copper prices will have opportunities to move higher.
5% of copper smelters cannot predict future copper prices.