Mar. 12 -- TRI's latest comprehensive analysis of industry prospects to 2015 and beyond
In the next three to five years there are still good reasons to expect that tin prices will stay well above long-term historical averages, mainly as a result of constraints on mine supply. Further ahead, strong opposing forces - the threat of substitution and economisation in tin usage versus the development of new applications and resource depletion - will determine the shape of the industry going into the next decade.
This third major study by ITRI since 2008 is based on our ongoing statistical work and network of contacts with tin producers and consumers. It draws heavily on primary sources, including data gathered from regular field research in tin producing countries and an annual very large direct sample survey of major consumers. It is produced by a team with many decades of experience in tin market analysis and applications technology.
New and improved features of the 2011 report:
- For the first time we use the ITRI Tin Production Cost Model, developed in partnership with Greenfields Research, to analyse mining economics on a mine-by-mine basis.
- The model helps us to identify the floor price for tin in times of cyclical oversupply and the longterm equilibrium level necessary to encourage sufficient investment in new projects.
- The model is also the basis for unit by unit statistics on annual production forecast to 2015. Projects likely to come on stream from 2016 to 2020 are also identified.
- Technological threats and opportunities in tin applications are assessed and assigned time-scales and probabilities. In this way we can establish the likely net effect of a wide range of possible changes in downstream markets.
- While detailed supply/demand statistics and alternative price scenarios to 2015 are provided, as in our previous reports, ITRI also looks at the possible state of the business in 2016-2020