SMM Morning Review - 2012/2/1 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Feb. 1 (SMM) -- European and US investors continued to close euro positions, helping push up US dollar index to above 5-day moving average. Meanwhile, US economic data released last night was disappointing, showing that US consumer confidence index in January fell to 61.1, down from the revised 64.8 in December and much lower than market expectation of 68.0, which spurred investor concerns over the recovery of US economy and in turn resulted in mixed US stocks. In addition, China will release the manufacturing PMI for January today. As a result, a large number of investors exited the market after profit-taking, depressing copper prices, and LME copper prices accelerated declines at the end of trading, with prices even dipping to USD 8,287/mt and finally closing at USD 8,341/mt, down nearly USD 100/mt. The proportion of canceled warrants grew continuously to 29.37%.  

Markets are generally not optimistic toward Chinese manufacturing PMI for January, which will exert negative impact on LME copper prices. Meanwhile, weak US economic data will also depress LME copper prices. In this context, SMM expects LME copper prices to move between USD 8,230-8,350/mt during Asian trading hours today. SHFE 1204 copper contract prices are expected to hover between RMB 59,000-60,000/mt. In the spot market, spot discounts are expected to move between RMB 400-300/mt over SHFE 1202 copper contract prices.