SMM Morning Review - 2011/12/20 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Dec. 20 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 18,800/mt and closed at USD 18,700/mt overnight, down by USD 100/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 18,800/mt and the lowest price at USD 18,600/mt. Daily trading volumes were 106 lots, down 39 lots. Positions were 17,186 lots, down by 332 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were 12,200 mt, unchanged from a day earlier.

The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il adds another layer of global uncertainty, triggering risk aversion buying of gold and weighing on metal prices. However, impact from the Kim Jong-il death has not exerted long-lasting impact on market. At the EU financial ministers’ meeting on December 19th, consensus was reached that Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Chech would provide IMF with EUR 150 billion loans. According to data announced by China’s central bank on December 19th, China’s foreign exchange reserves for November continued to slip, stoking expectation that China’s central bank may further cut down bank’s requirement reserve ratio.

Trading volumes were limited, and traded prices slipped in LME tin prices overnight. LME tin for delivery in three months hit a low of USD 18,600/mt and closed at USD 18,700/mt overnight. The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il moved Asia Pacific Markets lower, due to market concern over the country’s political stability and nuclear plan. 

Amid mixed news, it is expected that investors will remain cautious ahead of Christmas holiday and China's New Year holiday. SMM predicts that LME tin prices will remain fluctuation trend, with support at USD 18,500/mt and resistance at USD 19,000/mt on Tuesday. In China’s domestic tin spot market, as LME nickel price fluctuate in a narrow band and since fundamentals of tin have not changed in spot market, SMM expects that spot tin prices will remain stable in the RMB 157,500-160,500/mt range on Tuesday.