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SMM Morning Review – 2011/10/21 Nickel Market
Oct 21,2011 09:56CST
price review forecast
SMM expects spot nickel prices will move in the RMB 134,500-136,500/mt range on Friday.

SHANGHAI, Oct. 21 (SMM) -- LME nickel prices opened at USD 18,550/mt and closed at USD 18,150/mt overnight, down USD 497/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 18,700/mt and the lowest price at USD 17,900/mt. Daily trading volumes were 2,697 lots, up 747 lots. Positions were 92,672 lots, up 722 lots. Inventories were 88,488 mt, down 990 mt.

LME nickel prices fell rapidly below USD 18,400/mt after opening, and later fluctuated narrowly between USD 18,200-18,400/mt. At the tail of the trading, LME nickel prices fell further to move between USD 18,000-18,200/mt. Finally, LME nickel prices closed at USD 18,150/mt, down USD 497/mt from a day earlier. Market concern over outcome of EU summit exacerbated, weighing down base metal prices. 

Base metal prices fell rapidly overnight, owning to the news that the EU summit scheduled on October 23rd will be postponed due to divided opinion on how to deploy European rescue fund. It is expected that no consensus will be reached on Sunday’s EU summit, and the EU leaders will convey a second summit on October 26th. In this context, market concern over solution to the European debt crisis further exacerbated. Although market concern eased to certain extent and base metal prices stabilized at the tail of the trading after Greek Parliament passed a new round austerity plan, base metal movement shall depend on final outcome of Sunday’s EU summit.

Comprehensively speaking, the post-holiday in base metal market has already come to an end, and market sentiment will be cautious before outcome of Sunday’s EU summit. Therefore, it is expected that base metal prices will continue to fluctuate at low level. LME nickel prices hit USD 18,000/mt, but received certain support to close above USD 18,000/mt. SMM expects that LME nickel prices will continue to extent weak momentum, and will struggle around USD 18,000/mt on Friday. In domestic spot nickel market, overnight LME nickel price tumble will drag down spot nickel prices to certain extent, and SMM expects spot nickel prices will move in the RMB 134,500-136,500/mt range on Friday. 

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