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SMM Morning Review – 2011/10/17 Tin Market
Oct 17,2011 09:58CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
SMM expects that spot tin prices will continue to move at low level and will largely move in the RMB 180,500-185,000/mt range on Monday.

SHANGHAI, Oct. 17 (SMM) -- LME tin prices opened at USD 22,225/mt and closed at USD 21,900/mt last Friday, down USD 150/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 22,500/mt and the lowest price at USD 21,850/mt. Daily trading volumes were 235 lots, up 15 lots. Positions were 18,089 lots, up 371 lots. LME tin inventories were 19,085 mt, up 50 mt from a day earlier.

LME tin prices largely presented quiet performance during last Friday’s trading hours, and only advanced slightly at the tail of the trading. During the European trading hours, LME tin prices continued to extent upward momentum, but fell from the high and closed at USD 21,900/mt at the evening trading hours due to profit-taking, slightly down from a day earlier. China’s September CPI was in line with market expectation. In addition, the G20 meeting reached an agreement to enhance financial supervision system. In this context, LME tin prices were boosted to certain extent.

According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics released on October 14th, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September was up 6.1%YoY, with growth slightly down from a month earlier, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in September was up 6.5% YoY. Although China's YoY growth of CPI was only 0.1 percentage point from a month earlier, the slight decline of CPI has significant importance, which showed that China’s inflationary pressure eased to certain extent and tight monetary policy may ease to certain extent in certain areas.

In addition, G20 financial ministers suggested increasing IMF's financial scale to the euro zone. Meanwhile, China, Brazil and other emerging countries may provide assistance to euro zone through IMF. In this context, market sentiment improved to certain extent. Furthermore, retail sales data announced by the US was also strong, boosting equity markets in Europe and the US.

Last Friday, LME tin prices unexpectedly presented weak momentum, but SMM expects that LME tin prices are expected to move higher on Monday from optimistic expectation that the European debt crisis may ease to certain extent. However, any growth in LME tin prices will still be limited, with resistance at USD 23,000/mt. In China’s domestic tin spot market, some smelters’ confidence weakened due to weak rebound of LME tin price, so tin moved by smelters increased. SMM expects that spot tin prices will continue to move at low level and will largely move in the RMB 180,500-185,000/mt range on Monday.
 

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