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SMM Morning Review – 2011/9/27 Tin Market
Sep 27,2011 10:05CST
price review forecast
SMM expects spot tin prices will stop slipping and will move in the RMB 178,000-180,000/mt range on Tuesday.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 27 (SMM) -- LME tin prices opened at USD 19,301/mt and closed at USD 20,200/mt overnight, up USD 890/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 20,850/mt and the lowest price at USD 18,460/mt. Daily trading volumes were 697 lots, down 129 lots. Positions were 18,500 lots, up 367 lots. LME tin inventories were 21,405 mt, up 90 mt from a day earlier.

LME tin prices fell sharply by USD 800/mt to USD 18,460/mt during the Asian trading hours, but began to rebound to a high of USD 20,850/mt at the tail of Asian trading hours and European trading hours on rebounding equity market and stronger euro. Finally, LME tin prices closed at USD 20,200/mt, up USD 890/mt from a day earlier. Market concern did not ease, and investors still focused on the latest development of the ongoing European debt crisis.

On Monday, German Business Climate Index fell for the third consecutive months and hit a 15-month low. The US new home sales also recorded a new low in 9 months. Disappointing economic data further weighed sluggish market. According to IMF, European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) bailout fund will be extended to Euro 2 trillion from current Euro 440 billion, which strongly boosted market sentiment. In response, equity market in the euro zone and US began to rebound, with Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeding 11,000 points, up 2.53%. The US dollar and euro largely stabilize, while gold slumped. Crude oil stabilized around USD 80/barrel. Although LME base metal prices largely closed with losses, prices managed to pare certain losses from rebounding equity market.

On Tuesday, LME tin prices rose rapidly to USD 20,900/mt after opening at USD 20,200/mt, and it is expected that LME tin prices will test sustainability at 5-day moving average. Indonesia announced to suspend exports on Monday, triggering market concern over tin supply prospect, which lent strong support for LME tin prices. SMM expects that LME tin prices will meet resistance at USD 21,000/mt. In the Shanghai tin spot market, stabilized LME tin pries will boost spot tin prices to certain extent, and SMM expects spot tin prices will stop slipping and will move in the RMB 178,000-180,000/mt range on Tuesday. 

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