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SMM Morning Review – 2011/9/20 Tin Market
Sep 20,2011 10:15CST
price review forecast
SMM expects that spot tin prices will move in the RMB 191,000-195,000/mt range on Tuesday.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 20 (SMM) -- LME tin prices opened at USD 23,300/mt and closed at USD 22,849/mt overnight, down USD 451/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,300/mt and the lowest price at USD 22,550/mt. Daily trading volumes were 368 lots, up 183 lots. Positions were 18,647 lots, up 129 lots. LME tin inventories were 21,015 mt, down 85 mt from a day earlier.

Risk aversion sentiment grew overnight, weighing down on base metal prices. LME tin prices fell to hit USD 22,700/mt during Asian trading hours, and LME tin prices were largely stable and hit a low of USD 22,550/mt during the European trading hours. Finally, LME tin prices closed at USD 22,849/mt, down USD 451/mt from a day earlier. The delay of a new round aid package for Greece has disappointed market. In addition, weaker-than-expected US home data intensified market tension, weighing down on base metal market.

On Monday, no positive result was achieved at the euro zone finance ministers' meeting, and market concerned further tight monetary policy from China, with sluggish sentiment reported. The US President Barack Obama laid out a new package that aims to cut the federal deficit by around USD 4 trillion, pushing up the US dollar and weighing down the euro. Three major European stock indexes were down by over 2%, while the US equity market opened low but rebounded later to pare losses by 1%. Crude oil and gold prices both slumped, and LME base metal prices closed with losses across the board, down over 2%, with LME copper prices even hitting a new intra-year low. Obama’s deficit cut plan was in line with market expectation, but the plan was opposed by both parties in Congress. Close attention should be paid to latest movement of deficit cut plan. 

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) announced on Monday that, the United States house builders confidence was down in September, and the US housing market index was still at level. The NAHB made an announcement that NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was down 1 point to 14 in September, while market previous estimation was 15. 

It is expected that market sentiment will be cautious before Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting, and LME tin prices will receive support at USD 22,500/mt. In the Shanghai tin spot market, overnight's LME tin price slump will inevitably weigh on spot tin prices, and SMM expects that spot tin prices will move in the RMB 191,000-195,000/mt range on Tuesday.


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