SMM Morning Review - 2011/8/3 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 3 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 28,200/mt and closed at USD 27,300/mt overnight, down by USD 899/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 28,200/mt and the lowest price at USD 27,200/mt. Daily trading volumes were 548 lots, up by 198 lots. Positions were 19,853 lots, down by 45 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were up by 650 mt to 21,465 mt.

LME tin prices tumbled to fall below 10-day and 20-day moving average consecutively, down by 3.2% overnight. Trading volumes and prices of LME tin were both quiet during the Asian trading hours. However, LME tin prices plummeted during the early European trading hours, and later fluctuated narrowly around USD 27,800/mt. At the tail of the European trading hours, LME tin prices tumbled again to hit a low of USD 27,200/mt, with prices finally closing at USD 27,300/mt, down by USD 899/mt from a day earlier. Downbeat manufacture data from the EU, US and China weighed on market confidence. Rekindled concern that the EU debt crisis may spread to Spain and Italy dragged down the euro and sent the US dollar higher, heavily weighing on base metal prices.

The US Department of Commerce announced on Tuesday that June's personal income increased by 0.1%, while previous estimation was up by 0.2%. Revised personal income for May was up by 0.2%, while the previous reading was an increase by 0.3%. June's personal spending was down by 0.2% MoM, the largest decline in recent two years, while previous estimation was up by 0.2%. Revised personal spending for June was up by 0.1%, flat from previous reading.

Market has been closely watching progress of the US debt ceiling negotiation. However, as the US lawmakers reached a deal of raising the US debt limit, the US debt crisis shall not be closely focused by market any more and concern over the EU debt issue will be rekindled. Lower-than-expected manufacture data from major economies and economic uncertainties dampened market confidence.  LME tin prices fell sharply overnight, and are expected to stabilize to certain extent on Wednesday. However, LME tin prices still face risk to fall further, with current support at USD 27,000/mt. In the Shanghai tin spot market, cargo-holders confidence will be heavily dampened by overnight's LME tin price slump. SMM expects, spot tin prices will continue to slip, and will move in the RMB 203,000-205,200/mt range on Wednesday.