SMM Morning Review - 2011/8/1 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 1 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 28,600/mt and closed at USD 28,380/mt overnight, down by USD 170/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 28,800/mt and the lowest price at USD 28,075/mt. Daily trading volumes were 303 lots, up by 41 lots. Positions were 19,450 lots, up by 108 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were up by 125 mt to 20,865 mt.

During Friday’s Asian trading hours, LME tin prices were largely stable, as market sentiment was weighed by no progress of the US debt ceiling talk. During the European trading hours, LME tin prices fell to hit a low of USD 28,075/mt as lower than expected GDP growth from the US in Q2 dampened market confidence, with LME tin prices finally closing at USD 28,380/mt, down by USD 170/mt from a day earlier.

The two parties still signal no agreement on raising the US debt ceiling. In order to avoid debt default and USD credit cut, the US has to raise debt ceiling before Tuesday. 
The US dollar fell against major currencies lat Friday. According to data announced by the US Department of Commerce, the US GDP growth in Q2 was still lower than expected. According to the data, US GDP rose by an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter, lower than the previous estimate of 1.8 percent. The first quarter growth was revised sharply downward to 0.4 percent from 1.9 percent.

Market sentiment will remain cautious before outcome the US debt ceiling negotiation, which will weigh on LME tin prices to certain extent. SMM expects LME tin prices will continue to hover at high level, with support at USD 28,000/mt and target at USD 29,000/mt on Monday. In the Shanghai tin spot market, limited supply of support prices, but soft demand and volatile LME tin prices will restrict spot tin prices from rising further. SMM expects LME tin prices will move in the RMB 205,000-206,500/mt range on Monday.