Analysis of Major Metals: August 2007 Production, Imports and Exports

SHANGHAI Sep.28 (CBI China)--

    Copper 
    CBI Comments:
    1. Domestic refined copper imports fell 11.5% MoM, from 98.5kt in July to 87.2kt in August, due to a slow downstream demand season as well as low SHFE/LME ratios.  Refined copper exports fell from 26.4kt in July, to 21kt in August, so net exports of refined copper reached 66.2kt, the lowest level in 2007 to date.

    CBI believes refined copper imports should rebound in September due to rising SHFE/LME price ratios and a recovery in demand.

    2. Domestic copper concentrate imports increased sharply by 51% to 556.4kt when copper smelters opened new expansion projects.

    3. Scrap copper imports reached 499.1kt, up 26% from July.  This increase was the result of material entering China during August that was actually held up in July by China Custom’s tax evasion crackdown efforts.

    CBI believes in the future, the supply of high-purity scrap copper should fall due to high customs clearance charges.

    4. Refined copper output inched up in August along with rising imports of concentrate and scrap copper.  Market supply increased as copper smelters launched expansion projects in August, but the increased output was limited by raw material prices.

    5. Copper semi-finished output and imports decreased as:
    1) Demand was weak during the slow manufacturing season.
    2) Preferential rebate policies were nullified.
    3) Several new copper products were added to a list of commodities under restrictive re-export regulation.

    Aluminum
    CBI Comments:
    1.  Strong domestic demand drove bauxite imports in August up 24% to 3,020kt.

    2. A decline in alumina imports during August came partly from rapid domestic capacity growth.  Domestic alumina output increased 6%, to 1,731kt, while net imports decreased in August.  

    3. Scrap aluminum imports reached 201kt, up 73% from July, as goods detained by China Customs’ during the previous month entered the market in August.

    Zinc
    CBI Comments:
    1. Zinc exports fell 9%, to 22kt, and zinc imports dropped by 70%, to 5kt, due to unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratios.

    2. Domestic zinc concentrate imports rose 27%, to 210kt, as treatment charges (TC) rose.

    Lead
    CBI Comments:
    Domestic lead exports fell 37% to 10kt as:
    1. Lead exports became unprofitable in light of the unfavorable SHFE/LME ratio.    

     2.China Customs began imposing a 10% export tax on unwrought, refined lead.