SMM Morning Review - 2011/2/16 Nickel Market

SHANGHAI, Feb. 16 (SMM) -- LME nickel prices opened at USD 28,730/mt and closed at USD 28,700/mt overnight, down by USD 75/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 29,095/mt and the lowest price at USD 28,550/mt. Daily trading volumes were 2,690 lots and positions were 101,235 lots. LME nickel inventories were down by 174 mt, to 130,248 mt.

LME base metal prices closed with losses across the board, as China’s inflation data dampened expectation of base metal demand in the short term and triggered concern over further tightening measures from China. LME nickel prices closed with slight losses at USD 28,700/mt. Although prices climbed to above USD 29,000/mt, prices still met strong resistance at this level, failing to make breakthrough.

According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s CPI for January was up by 4.9% YoY, and PPI for January was up by 6.6%. According to data from National Statistics of the UK released on Tuesday, CPI for January was up by 0.1% MoM and up by 4.0% YoY, the highest growth since November 2008, far higher than target ceiling of 2%, exacerbating inflationary pressure. Data from China and the UK further intensified concern over possible interest rate hike which is expected to dampen demand for industrial base metals.

Under the expectation of further tightening measures, coupled with coming of delivery data, base metal inventories are expected to increase further. In this context, base metal prices will be curbed to certain extent and LME nickel prices may experience correction. Currently, LME nickel prices meet resistance at USD 29,000/mt and receive support at USD 28,000/mt.

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