SMM Weekly Forecast on Manganese Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 20 (SMM) -- SMM believes that the force on environmental crackdown at EMM producers and the electricity restriction at stainless steel mills will be the two major factors affecting EMM prices in the following week.

Supply

According to SMM survey, environmental crackdown at EMM producers is a long term target, and can't be achieved within a short time. In this context, production at EMM producers will not be halted completely, with most producers maintaining production and receiving environmental crackdown at the same time. Although low operating rates at EMM producers in Xiangxi region due to tight manganese ore supply will continue, operating rates at this region will not slip further in the short term as inventories at most producers can be consumed for around a month. In summary, supply of goods is relatively tight, but will not reduce further at main producing regions.

Demand

Stainless steel mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces will face a 20-30% monthly restriction on electricity supply quotas, and monthly output at stainless steel mills will be reduced by 20-30% as well. Most small stainless steel mills are not on operation due to sluggish market condition, so demand for EMM is not optimistic.

Forecast

Supply of EMM will not reduce further, but demand for EMM will weaken significantly after concentrate purchases from ferroalloy and steel mills in recent two months. In this context, upward momentum for EMM prices is weak, and EMM prices have risks to fall. In this context, EMM prices may fall to RMB 15,500/mt in the following week. 

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