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SMM Weekly Forecast on China's Silicon Metal Market
Aug 20, 2010 17:27CST
Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Aug. 20 (SMM) --

Supply

According to SMM latest survey, operating rates at silicon metal producers in southwest China in August were 60.08%, which are lower than the peak level in previous years. Large amount of transactions of silicon metal during previous period when domestic consumption warmed up make inventory level at silicon metal producers stay low at present. According to SMM sources, orders at most silicon metal producers are booked to late August, and spot silicon metals are piled up at warehouses at major delivery ports.

Demand

Domestic and overseas silicon metal consumers' acceptance towards firm silicon metal prices was low, and enquiries slipped significantly. With the gradual recovery of global economy, total industrial output value at various countries all grows steadily. In this context, demand for silicon metal from downstream consumers will likely recover significantly.

Analysis

Currently, silicon metal suppliers are still reluctant to move goods and keep offers high, but downstream price acceptance is low. Trading sentiment between suppliers and demanders stagnated, and transactions were sluggish in silicon metal market this week. With the coming of month end, the data for silicon metal producers to pay electricity fees is also approaching. Will domestic silicon metal prices be able to have another round price rally at the end of this moth without support from demand? SMM believes that this round price rally has almost reached its peak level and upward momentum for prices to climb further is weak. Whether or not silicon metal prices can stay stable next week shall depend on market demand.

Forecast

It is expected that mainstream traded prices will be around RMB 12,000/mt for #553 silicon metal at Huangpu port, around RMB 13,000/mt for #441 silicon metal, around RMB 13,600/mt for #3303 silicon metal and around RMB 14,100 for #2202 silicon metal in the following week.

 

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