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SMM Weekly Forecast on China's Silicon Metal Market
Jul 23,2010 17:22CST
smm insight
Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, July. 23 (SMM) --

Supply

Global spot silicon market has already been in oversupply at present. Sustained growth of petroleum coke price and higher electricity price, coupled with slipping silicon metal prices squeeze  profit at producers. In this context, some producers with higher electricity price charges keep offers firm and domestic spot silicon metal prices meet resistance to fall from this week.

Demand

Demand is still weak both from domestic and overseas market. Market wait-and-see sentiment is strong in the market, and consumptions are still on as-needed basis. Large consumers have already prepared sufficient stocks which is enough for consumption in this month. Japan, South Korea, Europe and the US entere a month-long summer break from mid-July to mid-August, which will exert negative impact on export market.

Analysis

Sluggish demand dampen upward momentum of spot silicon metal prices, while downward price momentum will also be curbed from high production costs. In this context, market sentiment will be stagnant between suppliers and consumers. A new month electricity settlement price will begin in July, and it remains uncertain whether or not more and more silicon metal producers will sell off goods for cash by then.

Forecast

It is expected that mainstream traded prices will be around RMB 11,400/mt for #553 silicon metal at Huangpu port, around RMB 12,300/mt for #441 silicon metal, around RMB 12,900/mt for #3303 silicon metal and between RMB 13,400 for #2202 silicon metal.

 

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