SMM Weekly Forecast on China's Silicon Metal Market

SHANGHAI, July. 16 (SMM) --

Supply

Operating rates have improved significantly at silicon metal producers in Southwest China this week when the major producing regions have already entered into the high-water period, despite that some small scale silicon metal producers were out of production due to electricity price adjustment. Supply of spot silicon metal increased significantly, and producers’ willingness to move goods intensified during the high-water period. Silicon metal supply was largely in surplus this week.

Demand

Demand from aluminum alloy industry, the larges silicon metal consumer, was still weak, while demand from organic silicon and polysilicon industry grew steadily. Domestic consumption of silicon metal outperformed overseas consumption this week, and prices of silicon metal prices were largely affected by domestic spot silicon demand.

Analysis

Demand from overseas and domestic markets will not recover significantly in the short term, while domestic spot inventories will increase significantly, with market slightly favoring silicon metal purchasers. SMM believes that domestic silicon metal producing regions have entered in the high-water period from mid-July, and SMM believes that silicon metal prices may hit the bottom in August.

Forecast

According to SMM latest offers at Huangpu port, It is expected that mainstream traded prices will be around RMB 11,400/mt for #553 silicon metal at Huangpu port, around RMB 12,300/mt for #441 silicon metal, around RMB 12,900/mt for #3303 silicon metal and between RMB 13,400/mt for #2202 silicon metal.

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