Metals News
SMM Weekly Forecast on China's Silicon Metal Market
smm insight
05:22PM
Jul 2,2010
Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, July. 2 (SMM) --

Supply

When entering into July, impact from electricity price adjustment will gradually wane, as the final result of electricity price adjustment will be released soon. Operating rates at silicon metal producers recovered significantly in south China during the high water period, and supply of spot silicon metal will grow sustainably. Most silicon metal producers are manufacturing goods for orders they received previously, so there may be limited inventories entering in to spot market.

Demand

Demand from organic silicon metal industry was stable, so transactions of silicon were basically stable. As polysilicon metal industry has already been listed as overcapacity industry by the government, review for polysilicon expansion projected has been suspended temporarily. In this context, demand from polysilicon metal industry will be limited in 2H. Production at aluminum alloy industry was sluggish, demand for silicon metal will not recover significantly. Affected by sluggish demand from polysilicon and aluminum alloy industries, transactions of silicon were quiet.

Analysis

Most silicon metal producers haven't completed previous orders, so they were not eager to receive new orders. Offers of silicon metal producers who are waiting for final result of electricity price adjustment will continue to be firm in the short term. Most producers can not accept current prices after silicon metal prices rebounded in June, and wait-and-see sentiment from purchasers was strong in the market.

Forecast

SMM believes that silicon metal market will stagnant in the following week, and prices of silicon metal will slip slightly next week. It is expected that mainstream traded prices at Huangpu port will be around RMB 12,000/mt for #553 silicon metal, will be around RMB 12,800/mt for #441 silicon metal, will be around RMB 13,300/mt for #3303 silicon metal and will be around RMB 13,800/mt for #2202 silicon metal.

To contact the writer on this report: naturewang@smm.cn

 

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