SHANGHAI, Jun. 11 (SMM) --

Operating Rates

Operating rates at silicon meta producers were supposed to improve significantly with the arriving of high-water period at various regions in China. However, small-sized silicon metal producers were under great cost pressure in 2H 2010 due to intensified implementation electricity price hikes by the governments. Electric arc furnaces below 6300KVA should be eliminated unless they do some technology improvement. Currently, operating rates improved significantly in Sichuan and Yunnan. However, operating rates in other regions recovered slowly as the specific electricity price adjustment in those regions was not clear, and producers in some regions all halted production as electricity prices were too high in those regions.

Demand

Low-carbon economy becomes the global trend, and polysilicon photovoltaic market continues to be flourish. In this context, demand of silicon metal from polysilicon sectors will continue to grow sustainably. However, demand of silicon metal from other industries like aluminum alloy sector, and organic silicon sector was sluggish and showed no signs to improve due to global economic slowdown.

Analysis

The Chinese government will put their focus on electricity price adjustment in June, and production at mills with backward capacity and excessive energy-consuming and pollutant emission will be negatively affected, with the intensified adjustment of electricity prices. Currently, most silicon metal producers kept their offers firm and were reluctant to move goods. SMM believes that silicon metal prices will more likely be affected by producers' sentiment than market fundamentals over the short term, and prices are expected to climb up mildly before the uncertainties from electricity price adjustment diffuse. 

Forecast

SMM believes that silicon metal prices will more likely be affected by producers' sentiment than market fundamentals over the short term, and prices are expected to climb up mildly before the uncertainties from electricity price adjustment diffuse. It is expected that mainstream traded prices at Huangpu port will be around RMB 11,800/mt for #553 silicon metal, around RMB 12,600/mt for #441 silicon metal, RMB 13,100/mt for #3303 silicon metal and around RMB 14,000/mt for #2202 silicon metal.

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