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Copper May Rise to $7,755, Crude Oil to $93, Goldman Sachs Says
Jun 1,2010 17:07CST
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June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may rise to $7,755 a metric ton and crude oil to $93 a barrel by the end of the year as economic growth spurs demand for raw materials, according to Jeffrey Currie, London-based global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Platinum will climb to $1,830 an ounce by the end of the year as returns for commodities from the S&P GSCI Enhanced Total Return Index are 17.6 percent in 12 months, Currie said in an interview on May 27. Oil consumption in China so far this year is 1.3 million barrels a day, exceeding Goldman Sachs's forecast of 700,000 barrels a day, he said.

"When you look at the underlying fundamentals, whether it's macroeconomic data or commodity-specific data, the fundamental picture is still very strong," Currie, who has followed commodities for 20 years, said. "With copper, the fundamentals are outright rock solid."

Copper for delivery in three months was at $6,737 a ton at 8:25 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange, indicating a 15 percent increase in prices to Goldman Sachs's target by year-end. Crude oil is at about $73 a barrel, 27 percent below the bank's projection, and platinum is at $1,559 an ounce, 17 percent below its year-end projection.

The GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities dropped 13 percent in May, led by a 19 percent decline in nickel and 17 percent drop in lead as Europe sought to control debts and China took steps to curb growth. Speculators in New York oil and product futures reduced their net-long position in the two weeks ended May 18 by 121 million barrels, the most on record, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

The net effect of all austerity programs such as in Greece and Spain against the fiscal easing programs such as in Germany will be a net positive 0.2 percent boost to Europe's economic growth this year, Currie said.

If there are any commodities to avoid, they are natural gas, aluminum, nickel, soybeans and wheat, he said.

A long position is a bet on higher prices.

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