Weekly Review and Forecast on Manganese Market (Feb. 1-5)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 29 (SMM) --

Review

Buying from downstream consumers were gradually quiet due to the approach of Chinese New Year holiday. This week, prices of domestic manganese continued to decline along with reducing demand, and prices fell from RMB 15,200/mt at the beginning of this week to RMB 14,800/mt at the end of this week.

Supply: Operating rates at manganese producers in China were around 70%, and supply of manganese was relatively ample in the market. However, raw materials like ore powder, sulphuric acid and selenium dioxide remained stable at high levels, and few EMM producers without cash flow pressure moved goods at low prices.

Demand: Sales at stainless steel mills declined day by day, and downstream purchasers almost finished stock replenishment. Wait-and-see sentiment from stainless steel mills increased due to constantly declined manganese prices, and purchasing volumes reduced this week. Traders only make purchase in a small amount as prices of manganese were still on downward track, and most traders were still waiting for prices to decline further before making any purchase plan.

Forecast

Supply: Operating rates will not change much at manganese producers during the week before the Chinese New Year holiday, and operating rates will still remain at 70%. Supply of goods will relatively ample in the market. Prices of production materials like ore powder will not drop before the Chinese New holiday, and prices of sulphuric acid, selenium dioxide will also remain at high levels. Currently EMM prices have fallen to or near cost line at EMM producers without their own mines(Costs at EMM producers without their mines were around RMB 14,500-15,000/mt range), so any room for EMM prices continue to fall will be limited.

Demand: Some stainless steel mills in Ningbo and Nainan have already halted or will halt production with the coming of Chinese New Year holiday, so purchasing volumes from stainless steel mill will be limited. However, stainless steel mill will replenish stock at the beginning to of February, and purchase activity will last for around a week, which will bring purchasing volumes to EMM market. Traders will also not replenish stock in a large amount and will only replenish stock in a small amount as stainless steel market was still sluggish at present.

Summary

purchasing volumes will be limited since downstream stainless steel market is sluggish at present, and prices are expected to move narrowly, with prices fluctuating in the RMB 14,800-15,200/mt range.

To contact the writer on this report: jianghanmei@smm.cn

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