Widening Price Spread Between Futures Contracts, Weak Downstream Consumption, Spot Premiums Continue to Fall [SMM South China Spot Copper Cathode Weekly Review]

SMM News, August 13, 2026:

Guangdong region: This week, local premiums showed a sustained decline, while the price spread between futures contracts continued to widen, reaching as much as 700 yuan/mt at one point on Thursday. Suppliers had to keep lowering premiums to make sales, but actual transactions remained weak. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. This week, SX-EW copper supply increased, and its price spread against standard-quality copper widened. On Thursday, the standard-quality copper premium spread between Shanghai and Guangdong was 140 yuan/mt, with Shanghai lower; the spread was relatively small, and there was no interregional cargo transfer this week. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 15,400 mt, down 1,700 mt from the previous Thursday; warrants totaled 5,200 mt, up 900 mt from the previous Thursday. In detail: warehouse arrivals this week were 11,900 mt/week, up 100 mt/week WoW, below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). This week, imported copper arrivals were slightly higher, while domestic copper arrivals were relatively low. Warehouse withdrawals were 15,400 mt/week, up 5,500 mt WoW, slightly above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Although withdrawals were relatively strong, production at downstream plants was weak. The reason for the relatively high withdrawals was that domestic copper arrivals were relatively low, forcing downstream plants to pick up more goods from warehouses.

Looking ahead to next week, arrivals are reportedly expected to remain on the low side. However, downstream consumption is expected to be weak under pressure from high copper prices. Combined with the contract rollover on Monday, premiums are expected to decline first and then rise next week.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)