After a period of sluggish performance, gold mining stocks have collectively strengthened today. As of press time, Chifeng Gold (06693.HK) has risen by 11.43%, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) by 7.27%, Shandong Gold (01787.HK) by 6.15%, and China Gold International Resources (02099.HK) by 4.39%.
Note: Performance of gold mining stocks
Behind this unusual movement is the resurgence of international gold prices after a brief pullback. As of press time, COMEX gold futures prices have surpassed $3,370 per ounce.
Gold prices' "V-shaped" reversal: Resonance of three catalysts
Firstly, US President Trump announced on May 5 that a 100% tariff would be imposed on imported films produced overseas. Although this policy appears to target the film and television industry, it has triggered multiple chain reactions: On the one hand, the market fears that escalating trade frictions will impact the global supply chain, stimulating a rush of safe-haven funds into gold. On the other hand, the soaring costs of imported films may push up US inflation expectations, enhancing gold's inflation-hedging properties. Previously, Trump had already imposed tariff hikes on semiconductors, rare earths, and other sectors.
Secondly, Israel declared on May 4 that it would retaliate against the Houthi forces in Yemen and Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East once again.
Finally, the US dollar index has continued to pull back recently, further boosting the attractiveness of gold prices.
Gold mining stocks performed brilliantly in Q1
In addition to the three market factors boosting gold prices, miners with significant ties to gold have also benefited. Benefiting from the rise in gold prices, the performance of leading miners has continued to soar. Chifeng Gold's net profit in Q1 2025 increased by 141% YoY, while Shandong Gold's net profit growth reached 46.6%.
Some institutions predict that if gold prices remain above $3,300, the annual net profits of major miners are expected to achieve 30%-50% growth.
How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices?
Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the bank reaffirms the logic of a "super cycle" for gold, raising its target price to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and to $4,000 by mid-2026. They also emphasized that if the credibility of the US Fed's policies is questioned, gold prices could surge to $4,500.
Galaxy Securities believes that current gold prices need to digest the rapid gains from the previous period and may experience sideways movement in the range of $3,150-$3,550 in the short term. A breakthrough requires two signals: one is the initiation of an interest rate cut cycle by the US Fed, and the other is an explosion in physical demand. The institution pointed out that the scale of domestic gold ETFs has exceeded 130 billion yuan, surging by 160% YoY, and the consumption peak season in H2 may become a new catalyst.
