Post-holiday restocking sentiment has warmed up, and SHFE tin prices have rebounded slightly [[SMM Tin Midday Review]]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 6, 2025

As of the lunchtime close today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2506 closed at 261,960 yuan/mt, up 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range was 257,800-262,000 yuan/mt. Trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, with market sentiment remaining cautious. The most-traded LME tin contract was temporarily quoted at $31,850/mt, up 3.14%.

Fluctuating Tariff Policies: The US Department of Commerce signaled "potential partial or phased adjustments to tariffs," but the risk of tariff increases in areas such as AI chips and consumer electronics remains unresolved, sustaining market concerns about downstream export demand for tin.

US Fed Policy Expectations: There is a 92.3% probability that the US Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged in May. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, exerting overall pressure on the non-ferrous metals sector.

Production Resumptions in DRC and Myanmar: The Bisie tin mine in the DRC has restored its capacity to 60%-70%. The production resumption process in Myanmar's Wa region has been clarified, with incremental output expected to be released in late June, strengthening medium and long-term expectations of loose supply.

Spot Market: Post-holiday restocking sentiment has warmed somewhat. Downstream enterprises' procurement after the Labour Day holiday has been primarily driven by immediate needs, supplemented by some restocking demand.