【SMM Analysis】Analysis and Trend Outlook of China's Refined Tin Industry in April 2025

Analysis and Trend Outlook of China's Refined Tin Industry in April 2025

According to SMM data based on market exchange processing, in April 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.52% MoM and 8.13% YoY. The sustained tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate.

Yunnan Production Area: There was significant pressure on the raw material side. Myanmar's ore imports remained below the 10,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. The tin concentrates treatment charges (TCs) stayed at historically low levels, putting pressure on smelter profits and limiting production enthusiasm.

Resumption of Production: In April, the capacity utilisation rate rebounded slightly. However, due to the suspension of production at the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the extended preparation period for production resumption in Myanmar, the raw material shortage intensified, and the operating rate remained below the Q4 2024 level.

Jiangxi Production Area: Relying on the scrap tin recycling system, the recycling volume of scrap tin declined after the Lunar New Year. Coupled with the decrease in TCs, the production costs of smelters in Jiangxi continued to rise, leading some smelters to gradually cut production, making it difficult to restore previous production levels.

Inner Mongolia Production Area: Affected by production issues at its own mines, production was hindered in April, with a slight decline in output.

Anhui and Emerging Production Areas: Affected by the shortage of scrap and tin concentrates, overall production fell short of expectations, and the operating rate declined slightly.

Based on SMM estimates, the refined tin production in May is expected to increase by approximately 2% MoM. Driving factor: Resumption of production by some enterprises that had halted operations for maintenance.