As Labour Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises' willingness to restock intensifies, while SHFE tin prices remain rangebound. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on April 29, 2025

As of the midday close today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2506 closed at 260,460 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.40% from yesterday's settlement price. The intraday trading range was 260,220-262,460 yuan/mt. Trading volume and open interest remained flat MoM, with cautious market participation.

Expectations of Tariff Easing: US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently stated that "high tariffs between China and the US are unsustainable" and hinted at a high-level tax negotiation meeting to be held next week. Market expectations for localized tariff reductions have risen, boosting risk appetite in the short term. However, White House officials emphasized that "a comprehensive agreement would take 2-3 years," and the timeline for policy implementation remains uncertain, leading to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments.

Domestic Policy Support: The Political Bureau meeting in China proposed "accelerating the implementation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies." The accelerated issuance of special bonds is supporting infrastructure demand, providing sentiment support for the non-ferrous metals sector.

Pre-Holiday Rigid Demand Support: As the Labour Day holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises have begun stockpiling. Production of mobile phones and computers in March increased by 0.4% and 7.8% YoY, respectively.

Spot Market: Traders reported that morning transactions were dominated by small rigid demand orders, with smelters showing strong willingness to hold prices.