The Tariff Deadlock Shows Signs of Easing, Spot Market Transactions Cool Down [SMM Tin Futures Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on April 24, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) fluctuated considerably today. After opening, it briefly surged to 262,400 yuan/mt, then pulled back. In the afternoon, some bears took profits and exited, leading to a slight rebound in prices. It finally closed at 259,520 yuan/mt, up 0.36% from the previous day's settlement price. LME tin prices also fluctuated, currently quoted at $31,750/mt.

Tariff Deadlock Signals Easing: US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated at a closed-door meeting at J.P. Morgan that the current 145% and 125% reciprocal tariffs between the US and China are "unsustainable." He predicted a partial cooling in the coming months, but a comprehensive agreement would take longer. This statement alleviated market concerns about an escalation in the trade war, but the uncertainty surrounding the pace of policy implementation continues to weigh on bullish sentiment.

Emerging Demand Offsets Traditional Weakness: The growth of tin used in PV welding strips slowed due to US tariffs on Southeast Asian solar products, but demand for high-purity tin in AI servers and quantum computing has grown significantly, providing structural support.

Short-Term Volatility to Continue: The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain within the range of 255,000-265,000 yuan/mt, while LME tin prices are projected to fluctuate between $30,500-33,000/mt. The core imbalance still revolves around the triangular relationship of "resumption progress-tariff transmission-emerging demand."