The sodium-ion battery industry moved downwards after a higher opening. CATL: "Since I ignited it, I will save it!"

게시됨: Apr 24, 2025 17:37

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"Look at the current price of lithium carbonate; everyone is busy making money from lithium batteries. Who would still work on sodium-ion batteries?" an insider who previously worked in the sodium battery industry said. In July 2021, CATL launched its first-generation sodium-ion battery, and a hybrid lithium-sodium battery pack also made its debut at the launch event. The brief ten-minute press conference had a significant impact on the industry. In fact, sodium-ion batteries are not a new technology; research on this technology has been ongoing for as long as that on lithium-ion batteries. CATL was not the first company to "take the plunge"; before that, HiNa Battery had already started small-scale production of sodium-ion batteries. However, it can be said that sodium-ion batteries entered the public eye on a large scale starting from this period. In H2 2021, the price of lithium carbonate gradually increased, and by 2022, it soared to 600,000 yuan/mt. Sodium-ion batteries, with their "abundant resources, low cost, and high safety," were highly anticipated. After CATL's sodium-ion battery launch, a large number of sodium-ion battery startups emerged in the industry, and major lithium battery manufacturers also began to engage in sodium-ion battery research. The enthusiasm for sodium-ion batteries in the capital market remained unabated. However, as the price of lithium carbonate plummeted to below 100,000 yuan/mt in 2023, the cost advantages of sodium-ion batteries were quickly diluted. The sodium-ion battery sector, which had attracted attention due to the high price of lithium carbonate, also lost some of its market focus to a certain extent. Sodium-ion batteries have yet to achieve scale, and cost disadvantages limit development. On the surface, sodium-ion batteries have many advantages, such as abundant resources, less susceptibility to fluctuations in the supply of upstream raw materials, good low-temperature performance, and high safety. In reality, the inherent performance of sodium-ion batteries makes it difficult for them to excel in industries requiring high energy density. Over the past two years, sodium-ion batteries have generally been used in areas with lower energy density requirements, such as electric two-wheelers, ESS, and data centers. By the end of June 2024, the first phase of the 100 MW/200 MWh sodium-ion new-type ESS power station science and technology innovation demonstration project in Hubei Province, led by Datang, was completed and put into operation. The sodium-ion cells used in the project were provided by HiNa Battery. This is the first large-capacity sodium-ion ESS power station in China, marking a new stage in the commercial operation of sodium-ion battery ESS. However, there are many material systems for sodium-ion batteries, including layered oxides, polyanions, Prussian blue, and so on. Various systems are being explored, but no definitive technical route has been established. Recently, during a survey at Bonar New Energy, Chairman Shi Jian mentioned that the main reasons for the slower-than-expected industrialization of sodium-ion batteries are twofold: one is the slower-than-expected progress in sodium-ion battery R&D, with three mainstream material systems coexisting; the other is the persistently low price of lithium carbonate, which has affected the large-scale industrialization process of sodium-ion batteries. According to data released by SMM, on April 23, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 68,200 to 71,000 yuan/mt, hitting a record low in recent years and approaching the production costs of some companies. The continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate means that the advantages of sodium-ion batteries are becoming smaller. Since the energy density of sodium-ion batteries is far inferior to that of lithium-ion batteries, this means that under the same volume or weight, sodium-ion batteries store much less energy than lithium-ion batteries. Therefore, under the relative disadvantages of higher costs and lower performance, although sodium-ion batteries have begun to be shipped and applied over the past two years, they have not met expectations. Some battery companies that had announced plans to build sodium-ion battery projects have shifted their focus back to more promising technologies such as lithium-ion and solid-state batteries. Data from the "China Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Development White Paper (2025)" jointly released by EVTank, EVTank Research Institute, and China Battery Industry Research Institute shows that in 2024, China's sodium-ion battery shipments will reach 3.7 Gwh, mainly for ESS, followed by small power applications, with only a small amount used in EVs. In 2024, the shipment of positive electrode materials for sodium-ion batteries will be 9,200 mt, with layered oxide positive electrode materials accounting for over 70%. In 2024, the shipment of negative electrode materials for sodium-ion batteries will be 5,000 mt, with hard carbon being the dominant type. EVTank predicts that by 2030, the actual shipments of sodium-ion batteries in China will reach 109.3 Gwh, accounting for only about 3% of the total lithium-ion battery shipments that year, significantly lower than the 347 Gwh predicted in 2023. "We thought we had found the key to energy freedom, only to discover that the key needs to be reforged," a sodium-ion battery practitioner joked. "Sodium and lithium" are not substitutes but collaborators. Although most companies entered the sodium-ion battery field due to the skyrocketing price of lithium carbonate, the emergence of sodium-ion batteries seems more like a replacement for lead-acid batteries. Compared to lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries are more like "gap fillers" in the market, complementing the shortcomings of lithium-ion batteries in specific application scenarios rather than replacing them. On April 21, CATL, which ignited the sodium-ion battery market in 2021, unveiled a "new sodium battery" with an energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a breakthrough in all-temperature range technology, covering -40°C to 70°C, declaring that sodium-ion batteries are not dead but are evolving into a new spear aimed at the energy dilemma. At the launch event, CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun stated, "The breakthrough in the new sodium system is very significant. A long time ago, sodium-ion batteries had issues with energy density, lifespan, safety, and cycle life, but after years of persistence, we finally have some important products to offer. The maturation of the new sodium battery accelerates the arrival of the multi-core era." It is understood that the new sodium battery includes two types of products: the new sodium passenger vehicle power battery and the new 24V heavy truck start-stop integrated battery. The energy density of the new sodium passenger vehicle power battery reaches 175 Wh/kg, the highest globally for sodium-ion batteries, comparable to LFP batteries. It supports a peak charging rate of 5C and a driving range of 500 km. This battery is expected to enter mass production in December 2025. The new 24V heavy truck start-stop integrated battery is designed to replace lead-acid batteries, with a total lifecycle cost 61% lower than lead-acid batteries. It also has the advantages of full-depth discharge, one-button start at -40°C, and the ability to start after being idle for a year. It is planned to enter mass production in June 2025. With the breakthrough in sodium-ion battery performance, the application shortcoming of batteries in extremely cold environments has been addressed. Based on this, CATL launched the Shao Yao dual-core battery, combining the new sodium battery and LFP self-generated anode battery, fully utilizing the low-temperature performance of the new sodium battery. A 75 kWh battery can achieve a 700 km driving range, addressing both low-temperature and long-range needs. A new technology must go through the stages of theory, laboratory, testing, and market entry to become a commercial product. If the launch of CATL's first-generation sodium-ion battery marked the transition of sodium-ion batteries from the laboratory to the commercialization process, then this world's first vehicle-grade, mass-produced "new sodium battery" signifies that sodium-ion batteries are moving from a "niche market" to a "mass market." Besides CATL, on March 28, HiNa Battery held a sodium-ion battery technology launch in Anhui, unveiling the "HiNa Star" sodium-ion battery solution for commercial vehicles. The energy density of the cells used in this solution exceeds 165 Wh/kg, allowing for 100% charging in 20-25 minutes. Combined with the wide-temperature range stable discharge performance from -40°C to 45°C, it effectively reduces battery energy loss and significantly improves the utilization rate, providing reliable support for commercial vehicles around the clock. It is reported that the "HiNa Star" system will complete small-batch testing in Q2 2025 and be promoted in bulk in Q3 2025. Large-scale application will begin in 2026. Additionally, BYD disclosed in its annual report that the company's low-cost, long-life sodium-ion battery achieved a cell capacity of 200 Ah and a cycle performance of over 10,000 cycles, with better safety, power, and high and low-temperature performance compared to lithium-ion batteries. Previously, industry insiders often mentioned that lithium-ion batteries were too cheap, leaving no market for sodium-ion batteries and preventing their large-scale development. The lack of scale further prevented cost reduction, creating a vicious cycle. The new sodium battery launched by CATL this time injects a strong impetus into the sodium-ion battery industry, allowing sodium-ion batteries to avoid direct competition with lithium-ion batteries in terms of energy density and instead open up a new battlefield of "customized scenarios," developing in parallel with lithium-ion batteries and driving the growth of the sodium-ion battery industry chain. According to incomplete statistics from Battery Network, in the sodium-ion battery field, among the 39 new investment projects counted in 2024, 25 have announced investment amounts, with a total investment of 63.45 billion yuan. Among these, 18 projects have investments exceeding 1 billion yuan, and two are in the billions. In Q1 2024, although there were not many sodium-ion battery project investments, some significant projects still landed. EVTank previously estimated that as sodium-ion batteries continue to make technological and performance breakthroughs, coupled with the gradual improvement of the industry chain and the release of scale effects, the cost advantages of sodium-ion batteries will gradually become evident. It is expected that sodium-ion batteries will partially replace lithium-ion and lead-acid batteries in areas such as ESS, electric two (three) wheelers, NEVs, and start-stop systems. Conclusion: Sodium-ion batteries are not just a simple technological iteration but a reconfiguration of the energy logic. On the future energy landscape, sodium-ion batteries will not replace lithium-ion batteries, but they are destined to become key players in "customized scenarios," such as safeguarding the travel of passenger and commercial vehicles in extremely cold regions, serving as a "never-failing" backup power source in data centers, and weaving the safest and lowest-cost network in wind and solar ESS. True energy freedom is not about finding substitutes but creating new demands.

데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

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