As the resumption meeting in Wa State, Myanmar approaches, SHFE tin prices show a fluctuating downward trend. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin 2505 Contract, April 22, 2025

As of midday today (11:30), the most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract was quoted at 257,300 yuan/mt, down 0.78% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The intraday high reached 262,090 yuan/mt, while the low touched 256,720 yuan/mt, showing a fluctuating downward trend. Open interest fell to 26,200 lots, with intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market.

Deepening US-China Tariff Dispute: On April 21, the Trump administration announced a 145% reciprocal tariff on Chinese electronic components, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and others, directly impacting export orders for tin downstream consumer electronics. However, market expectations for high-level US-China negotiations have risen, partially offsetting the bearish sentiment.

US Dollar Index Volatility: The US dollar index fell below the 98 mark to 97.82, hitting a new low since April 2022. The surge in safe-haven demand for precious metals drove a rebound in the metal sector, with SHFE tin gaining favor among investors.

Domestic Policy Countermeasures: The MIIT plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for the machinery and automotive industries, coupled with the central bank's continuous net liquidity injections, boosting expectations for industrial metal demand.

Spot market premiums narrowed to 500-1,200 yuan/mt, with downstream restocking意愿增强, but end-user companies remain concerned about the sustained pressure of tariff policies on export orders.

Outlook and Strategy Recommendations

Short-Term Trend: After breaking through the 260,000 yuan/mt整数关口, the midday price faced pressure and pulled back. Technically, focus on the support level at 252,000 yuan/mt and the resistance level at 262,500 yuan/mt. If Myanmar's resumption of production is further delayed or domestic policies release超预期利好, prices may test 262,500 yuan/mt; otherwise, the risk of tariff policy implementation may trigger profit-taking.