SHFE Copper Rebounded with Reduced Volume, Returning to 76,000, While Aluminum and Alumina Diverged in Trends [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market】SHFE copper bottomed out during the night session and continued to fluctuate and rebound during the day session. The most-traded June contract closed at 76,140, up 0.40%, with total trading volume below 200,000 lots, hitting a new low for the period, and total open interest slightly decreased. SHFE aluminum fluctuated during the night session, rose in the morning session, and slightly pulled back in the afternoon session. The most-traded June contract closed at 19,695, up 0.28%, with both total trading volume and open interest slightly decreased. Meanwhile, alumina fluctuated downward, with the most-traded September contract closing at 2,818, down 2.19%.

【Analysis】The SHFE inventory released today continued to decline, and the copper semis production in March announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in the morning remained high, indicating the characteristics of the current peak consumption season, which supports copper prices. The impact of the tariff war is now marginally diminishing. After late April, the macro front will focus on the upcoming meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. The short-term rebound will depend on the support of trading volume. Technically, the resistance from last Monday's gap down is strong.

【Valuation】Copper: Neutral to High Aluminum: Neutral

【Risk】Macro policies fall short of expectations