No Significant Imbalance in Supply and Demand, Tin Prices Fluctuate [Institutional Commentary]

Market Review

Last week, tin prices fluctuated, with the SHFE tin index open interest decreasing by 4,601 lots to 67,700 lots as of April 18. The SHFE SN2505 contract closed at 256,250 yuan/mt, up 0.82%, with a weekly fluctuation range of 253,660-262,390 yuan/mt.

Macro Front

On the macro front, tariff policies remain in a state of flux, with the US increasing tariffs on China to 245%. Market sentiment has relatively eased, but the impact of tariffs may lead to a slowdown in global demand growth, affecting the continued rebound in market risk appetite. However, the weakening of actual demand takes time, and in the short term, before significant economic data shows a downturn, macro pressures are relatively limited. Continued attention is needed on the negotiation game between China and the US, as well as domestic proactive macro policies.

Industry Front

On the supply side, Alphamin, a tin mining company in the DRC, has announced the resumption of tin ore production, slightly easing the pressure of tight raw material supply. However, the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State remains uncertain. After the earthquake at the end of March, mine area meetings were postponed, and blocked transportation channels have intensified market concerns about ore shortages. Currently, tin concentrate TCs remain low, and attention is needed on changes in China's tin ore import data. On the demand side, the US White House announced an increase in tariffs on China from 125% to 245%, affecting key areas such as machinery, electronics, and semiconductors. This policy directly impacts the export expectations of China's electronics industry chain. In terms of inventory, relatively low tin prices have improved downstream consumption, leading to inventory reduction, but sustainability still needs to be observed. As of April 18, SHFE tin ingot inventory was 9,571 mt, down 806 mt MoM; SMM domestic tin ingot social inventory was 10,485 mt, down 1,177 mt MoM.

Logical Analysis and Investment Advice

Under the fluctuating tariff policies, overall market sentiment remains cautious, and tin prices struggle to rebound. The resumption of tin ore production in the DRC has slightly eased the pressure of tight raw material supply, but the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State remains uncertain. Currently, tin concentrate TCs remain low, and attention is needed on changes in domestic tin ore import data. With no significant imbalance in supply and demand, short-term prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 253,000-263,000.