The "Exemption and Imposition" Dual-Track System of Trump's Tariff Policy Intensifies Market Volatility, Tin Ingot Spot Market Transactions Cool Down [SMM Tin Midday Review]

April 15, 2025 Midday Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract

In the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) opened at 259,500 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound, and closed at 259,950 yuan/mt at midday, up 0.06%.

Tariff Exemptions Boost Demand Expectations: The latest US Customs exemption list shows that electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors are temporarily exempt from "reciprocal tariffs." This move alleviates the cost pressure on China's electronic product exports, indirectly boosting the demand expectations for tin solder.

Policy Volatility Suppresses Sentiment: Despite the expanded exemption scope, Trump announced the initiation of a Section 232 investigation on semiconductor imports on the same day, raising market concerns that the US-China rivalry may escalate further. The unpredictability of policies has led to cautious trading, with open interest decreasing by 3,219 lots before the midday break.

Delayed Resumption in Myanmar: The resumption meeting for the Wa State tin mine, affected by an earthquake, has been postponed, and no significant increase is expected before the end of Q2.

Resumption Expectations in the DRC: The Bisie mine announced a phased resumption of operations, but the pace of inventory release remains unclear, leading to market divergence on whether the supply gap can be filled.

Export Risks Remain: Trump's general tariffs on China (20%-25%) continue to suppress exports of home appliances and electronic products, with downstream companies remaining cautious in stockpiling.

The dual-track system of "exemptions and tariffs" in Trump's tariff policy has intensified market volatility. While SHFE tin has benefited from improved demand expectations in the short term, supply-side variables and the risk of escalating US-China rivalry limit the upside room. In the afternoon session, caution is needed against technical pullbacks triggered by policy volatility.