The US Announced Specific Tariff Rates for Multiple Countries, SHFE Tin Prices Maintained High Volatility in the Night Session [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning News on April 3, 2025: The US White House plans to announce measures to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on trading partners on April 2. This is considered the most extensive and impactful tariff policy of the current US administration. Analysts pointed out that "reciprocal tariffs" will have multiple adverse effects on US households, industries, and the macro economy. Political and business figures from multiple countries stated that the US's escalating trade protectionist measures of imposing additional tariffs will severely undermine the order of free trade and the stability of the global industry chain and supply chain, exacerbating global economic uncertainty. The Yale University Budget Lab predicts that after the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," if other countries do not take retaliatory measures, US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) will rise by 1.7% in the short term, and the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will drop by 0.6 percentage points; if other countries take retaliatory measures, the increase in US personal consumption expenditure will expand to 2.1%, and the real GDP growth rate will drop by 1 percentage point. Goldman Sachs Group released a report stating that as the US government's tariff policies impact the global economy and financial markets, the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months has risen to 35%, higher than the previously expected 20%. Not long ago, the US White House also issued an executive order announcing a 25% tariff hike on imported cars, effective from April 3. This move has also faced fierce criticism and opposition from both domestic and overseas public opinion. John Murphy, Senior Vice President of International Policy at the US Chamber of Commerce, told the media that imposing additional tariffs will "hurt rather than help the US auto industry," endangering many American jobs. In yesterday's night session, SHFE tin prices maintained high-level consolidation, reaching a high of 297,980 yuan/mt and closing at 295,000 yuan/mt. Affected by last night's Trump tariff policy, SHFE tin prices may drop back slightly today. Yesterday, the spot market remained sluggish. If SHFE tin prices fall back from highs today, it may stimulate increased activity in the spot market, and downstream and end-user enterprises may consider small-scale restocking.