【SMM Steel Market Morning Brief】Special Treasury Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Implemented

★Macro★

01 ★★★【Special Government Bond Issuance to Land Soon】

As the end-of-quarter disturbances gradually subside and the central bank's operations maintain liquidity, the market's funding conditions have recently shown a stable and slightly loose trend. Industry insiders indicate that the liquidity pressure after the quarter-end has significantly eased, and the funding price center is expected to decline. Meanwhile, fiscal efforts will accelerate the pace of government bond issuance, with the supply pressure of government bonds gradually emerging in Q2. It is widely expected in the industry that if the accelerated supply of government bonds pushes up funding rates, the central bank may use various monetary policy operations to hedge the funding pressure, and combined with the fiscal injection effect in Q2, the funding conditions are expected to marginally loosen.

02 ★★ 【Domestic Oil Prices May Rise for the Third Time This Year】

At 24:00 on April 2, domestic refined oil prices may rise again. Concerns over supply disruptions in some regions and the decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories have provided positive support, outweighing the potential downside risks to oil demand prospects due to trade tariffs. As international crude oil continues to rise, the crude oil change rate operates within a positive range, and the expectation of a retail price increase for refined oil in this round is strong. Data monitoring models show that the expected increase in gasoline and diesel is 215 yuan/mt, equivalent to a rise of 0.17 yuan and 0.18 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline and 0# diesel, respectively. If the retail price limit for refined oil is confirmed to increase in this round, private car owners will spend an additional 8.5 yuan to fill a 50L tank.

03 ★★ 【Central Bank's Open Market Operations Achieve a Net Withdrawal of 225.5 Billion Yuan】

The central bank conducted 229.9 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a bid volume of 229.9 billion yuan, a winning volume of 229.9 billion yuan, and an operation rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 455.4 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan was achieved for the day.

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★★  【SMM Blast Furnace Operating Rate】

According to the SMM survey, on April 2, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.49%, WoW......

02 ★★★ 【SMM Regional HRC Inventory】

This week, Shanghai's HRC inventory was 33.58 mt, down 1.88 mt WoW, a decline of 5.30%; the YoY decline was 11.52%, and the lunar YoY decline was 13.32%.

This week, Shenyang's HRC inventory was 85,800 mt, up 1,300 mt WoW, an increase of 1.54%. YoY, it was down 71,900 mt, a decline of 45.59%.

This week, Lecong's HRC inventory was 85.05 mt, down 73,600 mt WoW, a decline of 7.96%; the YoY decline was 129,500 mt, a YoY decline of 13.21%.

03★★★【China's Net Stainless Steel Exports in the First Two Months Reached 433,400 mt】

Overall, in February, China's net stainless steel exports were 115,200 mt, down 203,000 mt MoM, a decline of 63.80%; YoY, it was up 79,300 mt, an increase of 220.89%. From January to February, China's net stainless steel exports totaled 433,400 mt, up 221,400 mt YoY, an increase of 104.43%.

04 ★★ 【Linggang Steel: 2024 Loss of 1.678 Billion Yuan】

In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.097 billion yuan, down 10.94% YoY; the net loss was 1.678 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 681 million yuan in the same period last year.

05 ★★ 【Second-hand Listing Volume Surges 322%, Nanjing Real Estate Market Faces a Major Transformation】

"The current second-hand listing volume in Nanjing has increased by 322%, with 3,051 new listings." Several Nanjing real estate practitioners stated that after the lifting of sales restrictions, the listing volume in the Nanjing real estate market has begun to increase, and the market supply-demand relationship is facing adjustments.

06 ★★ 【Tangshan Jingjin Cold Rolling Galvanizing Project with a Total Investment of 1.028 Billion Yuan】

The Jingjin Cold Rolling Galvanizing Project has a total investment of 1.028 billion yuan, divided into two phases, with a total capacity of 2.2 million mt. The first phase of the project was put into production in November 2019, with an annual capacity of 1.35 million mt, mainly producing galvanized products with different types of coatings such as spangle, non-spangle, and zinc-aluminum-magnesium, widely used in construction, machinery manufacturing, automotive, home appliance manufacturing, and other fields. Relying on local steel enterprises, the company fully leverages the advantages of the industry chain, deeply processes upstream strip steel products, and produces high-value-added, high-tech galvanized sheet products, achieving the goal of increasing efficiency without increasing capacity. In 2022, Jingjin Cold Rolling ranked 85th among the top 100 private enterprises in Hebei and 70th among the top 100 private manufacturing enterprises in Hebei. In 2023, the company's ranking further improved, ranking 76th among the top 100 private manufacturing enterprises in Hebei, demonstrating the company's strong development momentum and good market prospects.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕【Shaanxi Steel Hanzhong Company Successfully Rolls TA5 Grade for the First Time】Recently, Hanzhong Company, based on customer needs and relying on its accumulated technology in rolling medium-thickness plates, quickly achieved another technological breakthrough in rolling titanium alloy plates—successfully rolling TA5 titanium alloy plates for the first time. The product's dimensional control and key performance indicators all meet standard requirements and customer needs, laying a solid foundation for expanding the high-end titanium alloy market.

⭕【Jingye Yingkou Plate Successfully Signs the Taoh River Bridge Project of China Railway 20th Bureau】Recently, Jingye Yingkou Plate successfully won the bid for the Taoh River Bridge project, marking the first cooperation between Jingye (Yingkou) Plate Co., Ltd. and China Railway 20th Bureau Group Co., Ltd. The Taoh River Bridge is a key transportation project included in the "Two Horizontal, Two Vertical, and One Hub" Regional Transportation Project Implementation Plan of Gansu Province (Ganzhengbanfa [2020] No. 57), and its strategic significance is self-evident. In early December 2024, after obtaining project information, the Yingkou Plate Structural Steel Sales Company immediately organized a meeting to discuss the project situation and formulate sales strategies. Before the official release of the tender information, they quickly responded and headed to the project department in Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Gansu Province, for communication.

⭕【FAW Toyota Sells 70,000 New Vehicles in March, Up 22.3% YoY】FAW Toyota announced its sales data for March and Q1. In March, FAW Toyota sold 71,025 new vehicles, up 22.3% YoY; for the entire Q1 of 2025, cumulative sales reached 172,461 new vehicles, up 9.6% YoY. This is a new growth record set by FAW Toyota after two consecutive years of positive growth as a mainstream joint venture automaker, continuing the "joint venture bright spot."