【SMM Analysis】Analysis and Trend Outlook of China's Refined Tin Industry Operation in March 2025

Analysis and Trend Outlook of China's Refined Tin Industry in March 2025

According to SMM's data based on market exchange processing, China's refined tin production in March 2025 increased by 7.33% MoM, but decreased by 3.06% YoY. Although the Chinese New Year holiday has ended, the continuous tightening of the tin concentrate and tin scrap supply chain has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, resulting in a limited rebound in the overall operating rate, which fell short of market expectations.

Yunnan Production Area: The pressure on raw materials is prominent, with Myanmar's ore imports remaining below the 30,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months, leading to a continuous decline in tin concentrate TCs to historical lows. Smelters are under profit pressure, limiting their production enthusiasm.

Resumption of Work: The capacity utilization rate saw a slight rebound in March, but due to the shutdown of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the prolonged preparation period for Myanmar's resumption, the raw material gap has worsened, and the operating rate remains below the Q4 2024 level.

Jiangxi Production Area: Reliant on the tin scrap recycling system, the seasonal stagnation of winter scrap recycling has shortened the raw material inventory cycle. However, rising scrap sorting costs and weak downstream orders have delayed capacity recovery.

Inner Mongolia Production Area: Stable operations are ensured by captive mines, making it one of the few production areas not affected by raw material shortages.

Anhui and Emerging Production Areas: Affected by the shortage of scrap and tin concentrates, overall production recovery has fallen short of expectations, with a slight rebound in the operating rate.

Based on SMM's estimates, refined tin production in April is expected to increase by around 2% MoM. Driving factors include the resumption of some shutdown maintenance enterprises and an increase in tin ore imports stimulated by tin prices.