Myanmar Earthquake May Cause Tin Price Surge [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market Review】The most-traded SHFE tin contract rose slightly by 2.22% mid-week, closing near 282,000 yuan per mt. SHFE inventory increased slightly to around 9,255 mt, while LME inventory pulled back significantly to around 3,050 mt. In advanced data, spot tin imports were at a loss; 40% tin TC remained stable at 12,700 yuan per mt; spot tin discounts were 100 yuan per mt.

【Industry Performance】According to an earlier notice, Myanmar's Wa State, a major tin producer, will hold a meeting with investors next week at the Manxiang mining area to discuss resuming mining activities in the region. The meeting is scheduled for April 1 at the Manxiang government office, as per the notice from the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration. Wa State spokesperson Nyi Rang confirmed the notice but expressed uncertainty about when mining operations would resume.

【Core Logic】A 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, with the epicenter located at 21.85 degrees north latitude and 95.95 degrees east longitude, some distance from Myanmar's main tin mining areas. No news of tin mine collapses has emerged yet, but such a high earthquake magnitude is likely to affect the mines. According to a draft released by the Wa State Central Economic Planning Committee, a symposium on resuming production at the Manxiang mining area is scheduled for April 1. The earthquake is highly likely to delay the symposium and postpone the actual resumption of production. Looking ahead to the next week, tin price volatility is unlikely to decrease, and absolute prices may pull back slightly, as the earthquake in Myanmar has caused an overbought situation, leading to a potential retracement of irrational gains.

【Nanhua View】A slight pullback is expected, with a weekly trading range of 270,000-280,000 yuan per mt.